WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump's legislative package of tax reductions and Medicaid cuts passed out of Congress on July 3 and will soon be signed into law. Up next for Congressional Republicans: Surviving the midterms.
Many Republicans argue that voters will feel the economic benefits of their bill and reward them by sending them back to Washington. Democrats say the bill is deeply unpopular and they'll use it to clobber the GOP in the November 2026 election.
History, in this case, favors the Democrats' argument. The party that does not hold the White House typically wins the House in the midterm elections as voters express frustrations with the new president's policies. This trend applies regardless of party in modern history, with some exceptions.
And public polling about the Republican bill already indicates voters aren't thrilled about it. A Fox News poll published in mid-June found 38% of respondents favored the legislation and 59% opposed it. Polls from Quinnipiac, The Washington Post, KFF and Pew reflected similar sentiments.
"This will cost Republicans the House," said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Washington, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is responsible for helping Democrats keep and win House seats.
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